Friday, September 16, 2005

An not very bold prediction

Looking at the tea leaves, I predict that by summer of 2006 the "discretionary spending" federal agencies will be ordered to reciss substantially across the board on all non-essential spending, in particular outside awards and contracts.
In particular, I'm betting we'll see something of the order of 15% recission of already issued grants, and sharper cuts in future awards. Temporary only, of course. New grant will also be issued late.
This will hurt, a lot. If it continues for more than one year it will hurt enormously.

I also predict that a lot of people sense this coming are going to pull-in spending, they will delay hires, cut back on travel and purchases to build up a reserve for when the cuts come. So there will be pain starting this year, peaking in ~ 18 months.

I really hope I am wrong on this one, but I don't think so.


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